Tuesday Night Technical Discussion

Week after week it seems that we are looking at the same old, the pleasant weather earlier in the week will soon give away to yet another storm system, or maybe even two more by the end of the weekend. The cold front sitting over the Great Lakes right now will continue to push further south with the shortwave associated with the cold front approaching Pennsylvania by late in the day on Wednesday. This will allow for more warm air advection Wednesday, which will bring 60 degree temperatures to much of the state. The shortwave will also bring a few showers, especially in the northern regions of the state on Wednesday. As we move towards Thursday, the cold front and associated shortwave will arrive in Pennsylvania bringing periods of rain for the majority of the day, as well as cold air advection which will lead to much cooler temperatures as we move later in the day on Thursday. The shortwave will slide out to sea Thursday night, leaving behind much cooler temperatures and uncertainty heading into the weekend. Friday will remain cool and dry, but things get complicated as we move later in the day on Friday. It seems most of the models develop a second storm later this week after the first shortwave leaves. The issue with the models seems to be the timing and location of the storm. The NAM and GFS models wait to develop the storm when it is well out to sea. This scenario would keep the entire east coast dry with well below average temperatures for the weekend. The other side of things is the European model which develops the storm right on the coast and allows for enough tilt in the jet stream that the storm just rides up along the coast. This scenario would lead to a snowstorm for some areas of Pennsylvania depending on how close the storm was to the coast. A storm closer to the coast could bring significant snowfall to western and central Pennsylvania with a large rainstorm in eastern Pennsylvania. If the storm were to be a little further off the coast, the area of snow could shift more towards eastern and central regions of the state. So with much uncertainty in the forecast this weekend, right now all that can be guaranteed is a chilly weekend with the chance for some snow or rain.

Zachary Fasnacht