Synopsis:
A weak cold front will move through overnight, producing showers. Behind it, an area of high pressure will build in early Monday but pull out on Tuesday. Meanwhile, a developing tropical system currently located near the southern Yucatan peninsula will move up the East coast during the early part of the week. Its moisture is anticipated to arrive in PA around midnight Tuesday (0400Z Wed. 19 Oct. 2011) and pull out of PA sometime on Thursday. High pressure will build in behind the system on Friday.
Cold front moving through the northeast today:
The 09Z SREF members and 12Z GFS are in agreement with timing. Expect isolated showers with total amounts no greater than a quarter of an inch.
High pressure for Monday PM through Tuesday:
The 09Z SREF members and 12Z GFS are in agreement with timing. Expect partly cloudy skies and comfortable temperatures.
Tropical system heading up the coast:
At the suggestion of the HPC, we used the 12Z ECMWF. Other models are not handling this well, but they will get better with this as the system gets closer. The NHC is monitoring this system. Regardless of whatever time it arrives, expect 1.5" of rain and a few isolated thunderstorms east of US-220 and about half as much rain west of the highway. This will change with the projected path. The SPC (see Day 4-8 Outlook) is also monitoring this system. Remember: "the trend is your friend."
High pressure building in behind the system:
I used the GFS to see what will build in behind it. When it builds in will depend on when the tropical system exits.
-Jaron Breen
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