Synopsis
High pressure will build into the area from the west and dominate our weather through Friday evening. An area of low pressure over the Southeast will begin to move northeast and eventually off the southeast coast and strengthen as it moves north along the east coast. This will bring precipitation, possibly in the form heavy wet snow to most of the southeastern areas of Pennsylvania. Behind this low pressure, high pressure will build northeast from the Tennessee Valley for Sunday with clearing skies. Another shortwave associated with clouds approached on Monday into Tuesday before high pressure builds in mid-week.
Short Term (Through Saturday morning)
Cold air will continue seep down into the area overnight as evidenced by some higher elevations near Bradford and Dubois reporting snow throughout the day. As skies continue to clear out tonight due to dry northwesterly flow, temperatures will fall below freezing with some location reporting lows in the upper 20's. There are already many frost advisories out for parts of the commonwealth and the potential for fog in many of the central PA valley. Friday is going to be very chilly as skies remain mostly cloud which will limit solar heating potential. As a low pressure system over Virginia begins to move northwards, skies will become cloudy overnight into Saturday morning.
Mid-Term (Saturday morning –Sunday evening)
This low pressure will rapidly strengthen once it makes it way off the coast of Delaware. Precipitation associated with this low pressure will begin to spread into the southeastern regions of PA earl Saturday morning. The initial precipitation will begin as rain, but as we go later in Saturday, the rain will change to heavy wet snow. The heaviest precipitation will occur during the day Saturday as the 850 mb low strengthens off the Delaware coast. There is definitely the potential for some significant snow accumulations in the eastern regions of PA particularly in the Lehigh valley and southeast toward Philly. The GFS, Euro, and SREF's have reached a decent consensus that this low will take a track that is conducive to heavy wintry precipitation over these regions of PA. However, there will be a particularly sharp gradient in the precipitation amounts with places near State College receiving only flurries Saturday afternoon. Precipitation will generally increase as one moves toward the PA/NJ border. Precipitation will continue to fall Saturday night in to Sunday morning before tapering off on Sunday. In the end, there is still some uncertainty with regards to the exact track of this system, so I will hold out on specific snowfall amounts.
Long Term (Sunday-Wednesday)
Sunday will remain cloudy and cold as the low pressure moves off to the northeast and we are dominated by cold air advection. High pressure will build in on Sunday and promote clearing skies and allow our temperatures to moderate. However, late Monday, another shortwave approaching from the northwest will bring increased cloud cover and the chance for some precipitation. Behind this shortwave, another ridge of high pressure will build and allow our temperatures to approach normal again before a cold front approaches late in the period.
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