Synopsis...
A very potent center of low pressure will make its way toward the commonwealth Wednesday, bringing lots of rain with it. This low pressure will hand around through early Friday, making way for a great weekend.
Short Term...
Based on current observations and a blend of the GFS/NAM model runs, the remainder of the overnight period and the early part of the day Wednesday looks like it will remain very comfortable with some passing clouds. The first batch of rain should make its way into the southeastern part of the commonwealth by early Wednesday morning, with the rest of the state seeing their first raindrops by 2pm. Most of this rain looks to fall during the day on Wednesday, with some lingering showers lasting through the overnight into Thursday. Beyond the morning hours, Thursday does not look to be a complete washout, with several model runs pointing toward some leftover shower activity confined to the eastern regions of the commonwealth. Regardless, the residing low will keep skies mostly cloudy to cloudy for the day on Thursday. The cloud cover should diminish later in the day Thursday into Friday as dry air "fills" the low pressure, weakening it significantly. Also, the upper-level trough associated with it will move its way off to the north, promoting partly to mostly cloudy skies.
Long Term...
Saturday looks to be a gorgeous day with partly cloudy skies and typical fall-like high temperatures. Both the GFS and ECMWF models show very dry conditions at 700mb with the trough well off to the north, and spotty areas of higher relative humidity. Though conditions will be much drier, a weaker trough will promote surface convergence and likely produce partly to mostly cloudy skies over the commonwealth for the weekend. Our next system, though not very significant, appears to roll in later in the day on Sunday, which will be something the next shift will have to take a good look over.
Andrew Dzambo
We Are... Penn State Meteorology
A very potent center of low pressure will make its way toward the commonwealth Wednesday, bringing lots of rain with it. This low pressure will hand around through early Friday, making way for a great weekend.
Short Term...
Based on current observations and a blend of the GFS/NAM model runs, the remainder of the overnight period and the early part of the day Wednesday looks like it will remain very comfortable with some passing clouds. The first batch of rain should make its way into the southeastern part of the commonwealth by early Wednesday morning, with the rest of the state seeing their first raindrops by 2pm. Most of this rain looks to fall during the day on Wednesday, with some lingering showers lasting through the overnight into Thursday. Beyond the morning hours, Thursday does not look to be a complete washout, with several model runs pointing toward some leftover shower activity confined to the eastern regions of the commonwealth. Regardless, the residing low will keep skies mostly cloudy to cloudy for the day on Thursday. The cloud cover should diminish later in the day Thursday into Friday as dry air "fills" the low pressure, weakening it significantly. Also, the upper-level trough associated with it will move its way off to the north, promoting partly to mostly cloudy skies.
Long Term...
Saturday looks to be a gorgeous day with partly cloudy skies and typical fall-like high temperatures. Both the GFS and ECMWF models show very dry conditions at 700mb with the trough well off to the north, and spotty areas of higher relative humidity. Though conditions will be much drier, a weaker trough will promote surface convergence and likely produce partly to mostly cloudy skies over the commonwealth for the weekend. Our next system, though not very significant, appears to roll in later in the day on Sunday, which will be something the next shift will have to take a good look over.
Andrew Dzambo
We Are... Penn State Meteorology
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