Synopsis
As the upper low in Southern Canada continues to move to the north, it will produce widespread clouds and rain showers into Friday. Once the low departs, an area of high pressure will build into the northeast which will promote milder temperatures. The next system will be a surface low moving southeast into the area with a chance of showers Monday. Another ridge of high pressure will provide better, more fall-like weather for Tuesday. However, a deep trough over the Midwest will help an area of low pressure form and it will eventually move toward the east mid-week.
Short Term
Currently, the low pressure system over the great lakes is weakening and has occluded. Skies conditions will remain cloudy and temperatures will be steady in the low 40's. There is the possibility for showers over the western locations in Pa and amounts should range from about .1 to .3 inches. There will not be much change on Friday as we still are under mostly cloudy skies due to this 500 mb low. This will cause the diurnal range to be relatively small tomorrow. The 00z NAM and 21z SREF maintain the strong southwesterly winds due to the pressure gradient remaining tight. Saturday will be nicer as the low moves off to the north and skies become partly cloudy. This will allow area to warm up in to upper 50's with lighter winds.
Long Term
On Monday, a surface low will create a chance for showers and bring cloudy skies. This will be short-lived as an area of high pressure builds in behind it on Tuesday bringing more pleasant weather. There will be another weather maker as an area of low pressure forms over the upper Great Lakes and begins to move toward the commonwealth.
-Matt Mehallow
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