Synopsis: High pressure for tonight through early tomorrow. Cold front affecting Wrn PA on Mon. night. Nor'easter passing well offshore Tues. AM. High pressure in control from Tues. evening through Wed. at 2400 local time. Weak cold front moving through on Thursday.
Short-term: The 12Z WRF-NAM and 12Z GFS agree that the cold front will pas through PA but will dry out. Cloud cover will be the main story with this. The same models also agree that the nor'easter's moisture will stay in NJ. A sprinkle is possible in Philly but mostly cloud cover to the east. All this because the cold front is pushing the system out to sea.
Long-range: The GFS says that we will be between high pressure systems on Thursday. We will probably see rain with this system but not amounting to much (so far).
Other notes: We looked at the 3Z & 9Z SREF panels and the timing of the first front is not too compatible with the GFS. There will be no wind <15 mph or wintry precipitation according to the SREFs... not even in the higher elevations. Thursday's front, given that is is about 4 days away, will need to be watched.
-Jaron Breen
Short-term: The 12Z WRF-NAM and 12Z GFS agree that the cold front will pas through PA but will dry out. Cloud cover will be the main story with this. The same models also agree that the nor'easter's moisture will stay in NJ. A sprinkle is possible in Philly but mostly cloud cover to the east. All this because the cold front is pushing the system out to sea.
Long-range: The GFS says that we will be between high pressure systems on Thursday. We will probably see rain with this system but not amounting to much (so far).
Other notes: We looked at the 3Z & 9Z SREF panels and the timing of the first front is not too compatible with the GFS. There will be no wind <15 mph or wintry precipitation according to the SREFs... not even in the higher elevations. Thursday's front, given that is is about 4 days away, will need to be watched.
-Jaron Breen
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