Sunday, September 23, 2012

Sunday PM: Settling Down then Mid-Week Showers

Synopsis:

The upper-level low that powered the cold front is still with us; clouds and drizzle will linger overnight. High pressure will approach from the southwest, clearing things out until mid-week. A cold front will then approach the Commonwealth Tuesday evening and then pull away Thursday night. High pressure is expected to build back in for the end of the week.

Models Used: 12Z NAM, 15Z SREFS, & 12Z GFS; Confidence: Moderately High

Short-term:

Future shifts will need to forecast cloud cover over the next day or so. The SREFs showed that measurable precipitation was possible in western and central PA over the next few days and also showed that the timing of the front's arrival was in question at dinner-time Tuesday in western PA. Temperatures rising slowly until the front passes.

Long-rage:

The cold front will move through, again timing will be an issue. Temperatures do fall after the front, how much remains to be forecasted.

-Jaron Breen

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