thursday Discussion

Thursday Discussion

Synopsis:  A weak cold front will be approaching from the northwest and quickly making it's way out come Friday.  Come Friday night into early Saturday a deepening low over northern Michigan and Canada will move into our region.  A pretty significant cold front will be associated with this deepening low.  With the passage of this front the region can expect heavy rain and scattered storms.  Some storms may be severe over the eastern part of the state.  Cooler temperatures will persist for the next few days.

Short Term:  After the passage of this front the very moist air mass is still in place will provide some instability Thursday into Friday bringing some possible showers and maybe even an isolated thunderstorm to the eastern half of the state.  Temperatures will remain the same as the cold front passes through, maybe only slight fluctuations in the high temperatures.  However dew points will stay the same and even rise in some areas due to evaporational cooling so it will feel quite muggy out in the overnight hours.  Low temps for overnight Thursday into Friday will be in the mid o upper 60s for most of the Commonwealth.

Long Term:  The weak cold front exits the state and a weak high pressure builds during the day on Friday with warm advection bringing in more warm moist air setting up for Saturdays events.  As the low deepens over Canada the cold front begins to strengthen due to frontogenisis.  Storms and precipetation will begin to move into the state in the early morning hours of Saturday.  Due to decent upper-level wind shear and CAPE values along with a significant lifting mechanism thunderstorms and squall lines will occur throughout the state.  Some storms over the eastern pat of the state could be severe due to the greater amount of day time heating.  We can expect heavy rain frequent lightning strikes and moderate to strong wind gusts with some of these stronger storms.  After this is all said and done temperatures will cool down and conditions look to be improving by the time next week roles around.