Synopsis: A very slow moving cold front is draped along the northwestern part of the state slowly moving across the Commonwealth bringing showers to most of the region for the next day or so. After its passage a deep upper level trough will descend from the north bringing more unsettled weather for the next few days in the form of showers and possible thunderstorms.
Short term: As the cold front moves across the state showers will be popping up all over. Come Thursday morning the cold front will only have made its way to about interstate 80 and become stationary. This will set the stage for the ongoing short wave disturbances that will occur. For the near term the ensemble forecasts are still unsure about total precipitation for the next two days. However the eastern half of the state looks to be the best candidate for the greatest amount of precip to fall.
Long term: Come the weekend we can expect the front to push off to the south and the upper level trough will give way to an even deeper upper level trough. The newly formed deep layer trough will be in place Saturday and begin to ramp up. A low pressure will form over the Chesapeake Bay due to PVA and the associated vort max from the deep upper level trough. This will bring very unsettled weather for the eastern half of the state for Saturday and Sunday. Some showers can be expected over the middle part of the state but the concentration of showers and possible storms will be to the east. Come Monday the system will be moving along the northeastern coastal states and our region could see some lingering showers due to the cold conveyer belt. Not much cold advection associated with the passage of this system, expect temps to remain around normal for both highs and lows.
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