Tech Disco 9-6-2012

Summary

With some scattered severe storms looming around the northern parts of the state, popup storms will remain in the forecast for the rest of today and overnight tonight.  The steamy heat will continue into the weekend until a cold front with strong storms will push through Saturday, leaving cooling relief with less humidity to start off the next week.

Short Term (Now through Saturday Night)

Right now, here are some severe thunderstorms draped across parts of Northwestern, North Central, Northeastern and Central to South Central PA. These storms have history of pea to marble sized hail, and heavy downpours in their wake. With convection still doing work across the state, areas with assisted lift from the mountains, these storms will remain a factor now into the early twilight hours.  The NAM hints at storms around midnight, but its recent history of lagging hints that those storms are currently in progress. Looking at Friday, the morning and early afternoon appear calm, but warm advection with a synoptic system approaching will allow for storms to pop up mainly along the northwest quarter of PA, but the southwest and north central parts of the state could see pre-frontal storms develop midday Friday. Areas to the east will see warmer temps with the addition of high humidity during the day. The storms ahead of the front will make way into the Northeast shortly after midnight, with both the NAM and GFS giving the front 24 hours to enter and exit the state completely. The NAM appears slower on this than the GFS, but both agree with the 24 hour time span. The most intense storm will remain in the Northeast as the low shoots past Lake Erie and settles more into New England, but with a slow progression of the front through PA, strong lift ahead of the front can definitely leave server thunderstorms across the state.

Long term (Sunday & Monday)

With 2am being the GFS' set time for the storm's complete exit, the ridge beyond the front looks promising for less humid days and nights for the start of the next week. A vast area of cold (and dry) advection will combine with oncoming high pressure for more seasonal and pleasant sunny, dry conditions statewide. A ridge aloft combined with vast high pressure across the Eastern third of the U.S. will bring much needed relief everywhere for almost all of next week.