Sunday, February 12, 2012

Sunday Afternoon Technical Discussion

Synopsis:

High pressure to our south is setting up a northerly flow, allowing lake effect snow to occur. It will head north and east, giving us some sun tomorrow. Winds will be a factor over the next 24 hours. A mid-latitude cyclone will arrive from the west, producing a wintry mix Monday night through sunrise Wed. We get a break in the clouds on Wed. as a weak high passes over the Commonwealth. However, another mid-latitude cyclone will make its way toward the state late in the work week.

Models Used: 12Z ETA and GFS; 15Z SREF Precip. Plumes

Short-term:

A fast flow aloft is moving these systems quickly to the east. Go with a general model consensus and when precipitation is a factor, use the raw model data for temperature.

Long-term:

The flow aloft slows down a bit. Of course with any long-range forecast - specifically Thursday's storm - keep the trend in mind. The set-up looks like a cold front with lee-side troughing... allowing for another weak low to form along the coast. Keep an eye to the models.

-Jaron Breen

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