Tech Disco 2-13

Synopsis 

Today's sunshine will be the bright spot for the upcoming days as the bulk of the week's weather will be governed by clouds and precipitation, but nothing to serious in terms of cold weather as we move out of our coldest snap of the winter.

Short Term (Tonight through Wednesday Night)

High pressure to our South will remain in play as it slowly tracks out toward the coast. Leaving us with a starlit sky overnight before the weather gets dicey on Tuesday, as  a large cloud mass will blanket the Northeast U.S. Tuesday. This cloud  mass has already dumped snow out over the central plains states, and it will have some more in the tank for us. PVA aloft nestled inside  a short wave with synoptic warn advection will help these clouds maintain their depth, allowing them to precipitate. The bulk of this precipitation will fall as snow as the 540 dam line sits far to our south and forecasted soundings have the temperature well left of the 0°C isotherm. These showers will be light however, and they will be scattered about for all areas except the southeast quadrant of the state Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday morning. Beyond this, humidity values aloft are on the decline, and high pressure is branching out of an Atlantic ridge, which will help provide more sunshine for Wednesday, and continuous southerly flow throughout the day should help us warm out of the freezing regime of temperatures, setting the scene for the later portion of the week.

Long Term (Thursday and Friday with a weekend preview)

A low pressure cell will be quickly organizing itself Wednesday night over the Midwest, and a shortwave within a stretched area of PVA will provide of energy for  the low to develop and intensify. This low will occlude quickly and briefly: just enough to provide moderate rainfall throughout the state all day Thursday. Any snow that comes from this system will fall overnight Thursday in higher elevations, moreso concentrated over Northwest PA. In terms of timing, the NAM ends the event  by 9z Friday, whereas the GFS ends it between 0z to 3z Firday, and the SREF plumes are caught in between the two solutions. Despite the diesagreements, they all agree that Friday will have leftover clouds with some lake effect snow for the Northwest corner of the state. Another shortwave is set for a weekend clipper, but we'll have to keep an eye on this one for sure.

Steve Engblom Dos