Synopsis: Clouds rolling into the state this morning. Western PA should see showers before noon. Several waves move through the area this week limiting the amount of sunshine, but will feel like April. Cold front should knock us down back to average for the weekend.
Short-term: The models have a good handle on what is to come. The EURO is the slowest one for the first wave. We moved the chance of showers entering the state up to this late morning and early afternoon for Western PA. Rest of the state should see showers in the afternoon and overnight. The next wave moves through late Wednesday, nothing much expect rain, under warm air advection.
Long-term: Thursday will start off with those showers from Wednesday night then the third wave moves in with some scattered showers. All the models have hinted that this. There will be a brief break before the last wave moves through, and this wave has the biggest spread amongst the models. The EURO (0z) is the farthest south and more robust, while the GFS (0z) and NAM (12z) have similar solutions. At the current moment the HPC is going with the models that closely relate to the ensembles, which are the GFS & NAM. For Friday went with morning showers as cold front pushes through, we cold advect back to around average for Friday. Saturday with NW winds, lake-effect clouds and showers.
Kept temperatures near previous shift, with minor changes.
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