Tuesday Midday

Synopsis:  A disturbance is pushing through the state today, providing rain and snow showers for much of the state.  Brief period of high pressure for Wednesday before a storm system rides up the Ohio River Valley on Thursday before redeveloping off the Atlantic Coast, bringing the chance of more wintry weather to the region.  High pressure works in for Friday and Saturday.  Saturday night looks to be a concern of storminess.

Short-term:  Visible satellite shows blotches of clearing across the state with period of precipitation.  Looking off west, the precipitation looks more together.  Combining that and current temperatures, Southeast regions went with rain when the second band pushes in, with our Northern regions remaining below freezing --> snow, the regions in-between will see a mix of rain/snow.   Partial clearing will occur overnight as a weak high pressure works in from the west.  But will quickly move out as a shortwave will start to rumble up the Ohio River Valley on Wednesday.

Long-term:  Things get interesting for Thursday.  The shortwave discussed above will develop into a storm system that will bring warm air advection for Thursday morning and early afternoon, the GFS, NAM, SREF & EURO all agree on this.  As Thursday afternoon progresses, the models start to diverge over what will happen next.  All of them agree that a redevelopment will occur on the Atlantic Coast, with the NAM, SREF & EURO redeveloping off the VA/NC coast, the GFS trying for a broader redevelopment over the Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England coast.  The CMC is trying for a Southern New England redevelopment.  As you might imagine, this causes forecasting issues.  The cluster of the NAM, SREF & EURO with their further south development has the 850mb temps crashing below 0 across the state as the redevelopment occurs.  The GFS has the same deal, just not with the whole state. CMC tries to crash the 850mb temps, but that does not have any concerns for us.  What this means is that the starting precipitation will be rain, then transition over to a wintry mix for all of the state Thursday night.  At this time the HPC is going with the EURO solution, which fits in our cluster that we went for with this forecast.  Partial clearing will occur on Friday for the state with the exception of the Lake-Effect areas.  Saturday we remain partial clearing but the models are unsure of Saturday night.  The GFS shows a clipper system while the EURO holds back and shows a bigger system for the end of the weekend.

Kept temperatures near previous shift, with minor changes.