Synopsis: High pressure will scoot off the mid atlantic coast overnight tonight. An area of low pressure to our southeast will move through the area tomorrow, bringing with it some wet weather. High pressure will again move in behind this storm, bringing tranquil conditions into the first half of the weekend. Long term tends to be interesting, with model guidance not converging on a single solution.
Short Term: A storm system will approach from the Ohio Valley overnight tonight, with precipitation spreading across the state tomorrow morning. A light wintry mix will fall across the northern half of the state, as 850 mb temperatures will remain below freezing but surface temps rise into the mid 30's. The southern half of the state will likely see rain with this system. Precipitation totals will be on the order of light to moderate. Temperatures will cool off Thursday night, with skies clearing. An area of high pressure will slide east and provide nice weather for Friday. A weak clipper system will scurry to our north on saturday, bringing only the chance of some light snow or flurries to extreme northern portions of the state late on saturday.
Long Term: Clouds will increase saturday night, as a complex storm system develops in the southeastern U.S. GFS is the outlier in its solution. It takes the storm northeastward and phases it with the northern jet stream. Ample gulf moisture and phasing with cold air provides a significant winter storm ranging from the Ohio Valley to Maine. NAM and EURO are not on board however. The placement of the high pressure to the north in their solutions surpresses the storm to the south with no phasing. This would only allow for a moderate snowfall for points west of D.C. Will keep a close eye in the coming days for convergence.
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