As we enter the start of meteorological spring, we will start to see more "typical" seasonal weather as this warm winter begins to conclude. A strong synoptic rain event is projected for this week with some chance of lake effect snow behind the midweek system. This week, we'll observe the effects of an upper-level cutoff low infused in a strong long wave area of vorticity advection, which will help induce a splitting of an elongated low into two separate systems. In terms of a week summary, high pressure will dominate the days that sandwich this midweek storm.
Short Term (tonight through Tuesday night)
A low pressure system to our northwest will track to our north, leaving us with the remnants from the tail end of a cold front that will cross through the state this evening. As the front pushes through, dowdrafts associated with the frontal passage in conjunction with downsloping winds will keep the western valleys gusty overnight with brisk wind chills in the lower 20s. the idea of lake effect snow overnight is passable, for there is little directional wind shear and a lapse rate supporting adiabatic lift, but the magnitude of the lapse rate isn't strong enough to support the convection necessary for anything significant, just some clouds and a light shower will form at best. once this front is through, high pressure following the front will slide in Tuesday midday give us a calm before an approaching storm. Once day turns to night, the pressure gradient will intensify and clouds will move over the state overnight Tuesday. a strong moisture draw within a vast area of warm advection associated with a strong synoptic low from the plains will set the scene for Wednesday's storm.
Long Term (Wednesday through Friday night)
Rain along an occluding low pressure cell will begin to fall throughout he state Wednesday morning, and the rain will persist throughout the afternoon. The tricky part occurs where the models begin to disagree with how the storm's end begins. The 12z Nam has the central low placed within a detached area of strong vorticity and PVA aloft, and it's already elliptical shape will help the low split into two. The Nam shows this early, whereas the 12z GFS has it occurring after the system moves out. The Nam's solution splits the low around 21z, and the rear low continues to occlude and show a dryslot ahead of a cold front, while the leading low is dissipating with its rain falling on the bulky part of the comma. The GFS has a synoptic dryslot that clears all precip out by 9z Thursday, while the 15z SREF ensembles have a mean of these two solutions. This setup will probably differ greatly with the newer runs, so for now, we can only conclude lingering showers for Wednesday overnight into Thursday. The vortmax in the cutoff low remains in place throughput Thursday, leaving the possibility for terrain to help induce showers from the clouds overhead. After all this, high pressure builds into the state Friday to clear us out, and it's presence underneath a ridge aloft will help us warm up to weather more typical of this time of year.
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