Synopsis: A disturbance will move toward our Northwest tonight into tomorrow morning bringing the threat for rain/snow showers, mainly for the western half of the state. A strong cold front moves through the state on Friday, bringing colder and windy conditions with lake effect snow showers possible for Friday night into Saturday. High pressure returns for Sunday.

Short Term (Tonight through Thursday Midday) :  A vigorous shortwave will move through Lake Erie and into Western New York State between late tonight and tomorrow morning bringing the threat for rain/snow showers, mainly for the western half of the state. Precipitation amounts forecasted by all the models will generally be between the 0.10 and 0.25 inch range. Higher elevations may see an inch or two of wet snow with this disturbance.  Precipitation should end late morning on Thursday as the shortwave pulls away.

Long Term (Thursday evening through Sunday):  A piece of energy diving from the Pacific Northwest will serve to generate a surface low pressure system tomorrow night. This low is expected to intensify as it tracks through the Great Lakes into Northern England. There are some disagreements between the computer models with respect to the intensity of the cyclone. The 12z GFS and NAM have the cyclone intensify into a sub 990mb system as it heads into Northern New England while the 12Z EURO has a weaker cyclone.  Either way, rain will move through the state tomorrow night and last into Friday morning before tapering off Friday afternoon as a sharp cold front moves through the state. Behind the front, a surge of seasonably colder air along with gusty northwesterly winds will filter in as the pressure gradient tightens. With Lake Erie remaining unfrozen, the northwesterly winds will serve to produce lake-effect snow showers for the northwestern parts of the state Friday night and into Saturday.  An area of high pressure will settle in for Sunday bringing fair weather.