Synopsis:
A potent mid-latitude low is making its way through the Commonwealth and will slide eastward overnight. As it does so, look for thunderstorms near Pittsburgh, Light Snow near Scranton, and rain elsewhere. Behind the front, lake effect snow possible near Erie, but elsewhere, skies will be mainly cloudy. After a brief break in the clouds on Friday, a warm front will move through during the early part of the night. The cold front will move through western PA late Saturday morning and eastern PA late that afternoon. Thunderstorms in the southern portions could accompany the passage, expect rain elsewhere. Once again, rain or snow possible on the back end for Sat. night into Sunday. High pressure builds in for early next week as another system threatens late in the week.
Models Used: 12Z GFS & NAM (slowed down timing); MOS (adjusted down for tomorrow; up for Saturday)
The Rest of the Week:
Southwest PA is in the warm sector of the cyclone, so thunder is likely. Elsewhere, rain will fall. Surface temperatures will remain above freezing for most but it will be chilly. A northwesterly flow sets up behind the front, bringing lake effect precip, mostly confined to places near Erie. The dry air behind the front will continue to funnel in, giving us some sunshine between storm systems, if only short-lived.
The Weekend:
The warm front will reach northern PA and sufficient warm advection is likely ahead of the cold front. With surface temperatures near 60 in the southern third of PA and surface convergence, expect thunderstorms to occur with this system. Once again, a northwesterly flow sets up behind the front. The high pressure area will move into the region on Sunday night, about a day after the cold front moves through.
-Jaron Breen
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