Synopsis: High pressure will move to our east today, as a potent storm takes aim at the Commonwealth for Wednesday and Thursday. We clear out for Friday, but a strong cold front pushes through late Friday into Saturday.
Short-term: It looks like all the models are off with the precipitation field and location of the low for the storm that will be coming to our region Wednesday and Thursday, took that into account in the forecast. Sunny, clear weather today, no disagreements from the models on that. The real disagreement comes from what is going on with Wednesday and Thursday. Because of the differences discussed above, we brought increasing clouds into the forecast tonight with a wintry mix entering by dawn for our Western Zones, then changing over to rain. The NAM/GFS/EURO all have precipitation coming in AFTER 12z, but currently show very little in the way for precipitation in the Midwest at 15z, while currently there is precipitation (stronger than the models) in that region. Most of the state looks to be all rain with the exception of NC, NSQ & NE. NC/NSQ: once the precipitation moves the 850mb temp will be below 0 with the surface below 32, but both will slowly rise during the day, going above freezing early afternoon. NE: Both 850mb and surface below freezing, and will struggle to get above freezing for much of the day, and should by evening. The models have been suggesting that the high NE of Maine will not be as strong, but we are going with that the cold air will be stubborn enough to linger around. As we progress into Wednesday Night all precipitation should become more scattered in nature.
Long-term: The clouds will linger on Thursday as the primary low weakens and the secondary low takes over, cannot rule out the chance for a couple of showers. Clearing conditions overnight into Friday, as high pressure quickly moves in, but will move out as quickly with another storm system knocking on our door steps Friday night. Cold front pushes through Saturday Morning with showers, in the afternoon might change over to snow.
Kept temperatures near previous shift, with minor changes.
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