A Nice Week (For Some)

Synopsis:

I am the bearer of good news! The nice weather we've been seeing for the past couple of days will continue due to the perseverance of the strong high pressure system sitting over the commonwealth. But, I lied... this may only be true for the southern portions of PA. Areas to the north may see some off and on showers through Tuesday and into Wednesday morning, while areas to the south are expected to remain dry. Other than that small disturbance, though, expect warm temperatures and partly clear skies. Enjoy the nice weather while you can, because a cold front and a possible tropical cyclone loom next weekend. Stay tuned for updates on these potentially strong weather systems.

Short Term:

The dominating high pressure system will continue to influence our weather for the next couple of days.  Although, a batch of moisture looks to sneak between the high over souther PA and another high up in Canada around 1200Z on Tuesday morning.  GFS shows the southern high doing it's job and keeping the precipitation from reaching into southern PA.  On the other hand, NAM shows the chance for isolated showers extending down through the commonwealth, especially Tuesday night.  A chance of a shower lingers in the east on Wednesday morning, and then the system moves out.

Long Term:

After the small disturbance passes through, a nice, strong ridge of high pressure looks to build to our east off the coast of New England.  This will bring a warm, southerly flow and push temperatures well into the 70's (10-15 degrees above average for this time of year).  This trend will continue through Friday, until the next big system hits.

Really Long Term:

GFS has showed a well-developed cold front moving through the commonwealth on Saturday evening for the past couple of days.  This is still far out, but GFS has been consistent with the "intensity" and timing of this front.

Also, a tropical system looms in the Caribbean, and looks to head northward over the next couple of days.  There is MUCH uncertainty about this system after it slides to the east of Florida.  Will it head east into the Atlantic, as GFS forecasts?  Or will it rapidly intensify, slide right up the coast, and make landfall near the Chesapeake Bay, as EMCWF predicts?  This is definitely something to keep track of.  If it heads up the coast, it will definitely influence our weather in PA right around the same time as the cold front moves through.