Hurricane Sandy Info (NHC):
Adv. Time: 5 PM Sun. 10-28-12
1) Location: 470 mi. SSE of State College
2) Movement: NE at 10-15 kt. and steady
2) Pressure: 952 mb and steady
3) Wind: 75 mph (65 kt, 33.4 m/s) and holding
Front Info: Stationary over the I-476 corridor
UL Trough Info: Negative Tilt from Springfield, IL to Birmingham, AL
Merger Status: Slow
FORECAST:
Sandy is forecasted to fully merge with the mid-Latitude system in the next 12-36 hours according to NHC, which we agree with. The official landfall location is Atlantic City, but that appears to be too far to the south given the guidance (GFS, CMC, NOGAPS, & ECMWF - 12Z Runs). We cannot rule out a landfall between Atlantic City, NJ and Suffolk Co., Western Long Island, NY... for now, our call is Toms River in north-central NJ at midnight Monday into Tuesday. The storm will roughly follow I-195 in NJ, I-380 in PA, & I-81 in NY. Based on the guidance, the bulk of the rain will be to the left of the track (a cold-core characteristic) and the bulk of the wind will be to the right of the track. As for the snow, look for a coating to two inches in Cambria County (LH Zone) from Monday night until Thursday AM. On Wed. AM, the NC, SC, RV & NSQ regions will begin seeing a mix of rain and snow with no accumulations likely. Most of the effects will start to dwindle on Thursday with some lingering showers and breezy conditions possible on Friday.
-Jaron Breen
Adv. Time: 5 PM Sun. 10-28-12
1) Location: 470 mi. SSE of State College
2) Movement: NE at 10-15 kt. and steady
2) Pressure: 952 mb and steady
3) Wind: 75 mph (65 kt, 33.4 m/s) and holding
Front Info: Stationary over the I-476 corridor
UL Trough Info: Negative Tilt from Springfield, IL to Birmingham, AL
Merger Status: Slow
FORECAST:
Sandy is forecasted to fully merge with the mid-Latitude system in the next 12-36 hours according to NHC, which we agree with. The official landfall location is Atlantic City, but that appears to be too far to the south given the guidance (GFS, CMC, NOGAPS, & ECMWF - 12Z Runs). We cannot rule out a landfall between Atlantic City, NJ and Suffolk Co., Western Long Island, NY... for now, our call is Toms River in north-central NJ at midnight Monday into Tuesday. The storm will roughly follow I-195 in NJ, I-380 in PA, & I-81 in NY. Based on the guidance, the bulk of the rain will be to the left of the track (a cold-core characteristic) and the bulk of the wind will be to the right of the track. As for the snow, look for a coating to two inches in Cambria County (LH Zone) from Monday night until Thursday AM. On Wed. AM, the NC, SC, RV & NSQ regions will begin seeing a mix of rain and snow with no accumulations likely. Most of the effects will start to dwindle on Thursday with some lingering showers and breezy conditions possible on Friday.
-Jaron Breen
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