Synopsis:
Our cold front powered by the cut-off low is heading NE into Canada and a 500-mb ridge will build in, allowing temperatures to climb. Surface-based high pressure will settle south of here, providing us with clear skies. A low pressure system in TX & OK will bring rain to the Commonwealth Tuesday night into Wednesday, but the high is directing it north of us. Those north of the turnpike, especially north of I-80, will see the best chance of rain. The high then moves to the north and east as we wait for a cold front that will head on through next weekend.
Models Used: 12Z NAM, GFS, & ECMWF; 15Z SREFs
Short-term (Through Tuesday):
The high pressure will be in control for the first few days. The SREFS place it over the Central Appalachians in the 1020-1030-mb range.
Long-Range (Tues. PM - Fri AM):
The low looks to go along US-6 - very weak though. Enough to generate a shower throughout the Commonwealth, mostly in the northern 2-3rds of the state.
SREF POPs: 45-60% along & north of US-6; 25-50% between I-80 & US-6; 10-25% along & south of the Turnpike.
Extended Range:
Cold front: looks to slow down as it readies to sweep through because of the presence of a probable tropical storm Sandy (70% chance of development over the Carrbbean according to NHC) moving close to the US. Something to watch closely!
-Jaron Breen
Our cold front powered by the cut-off low is heading NE into Canada and a 500-mb ridge will build in, allowing temperatures to climb. Surface-based high pressure will settle south of here, providing us with clear skies. A low pressure system in TX & OK will bring rain to the Commonwealth Tuesday night into Wednesday, but the high is directing it north of us. Those north of the turnpike, especially north of I-80, will see the best chance of rain. The high then moves to the north and east as we wait for a cold front that will head on through next weekend.
Models Used: 12Z NAM, GFS, & ECMWF; 15Z SREFs
Short-term (Through Tuesday):
The high pressure will be in control for the first few days. The SREFS place it over the Central Appalachians in the 1020-1030-mb range.
Long-Range (Tues. PM - Fri AM):
The low looks to go along US-6 - very weak though. Enough to generate a shower throughout the Commonwealth, mostly in the northern 2-3rds of the state.
SREF POPs: 45-60% along & north of US-6; 25-50% between I-80 & US-6; 10-25% along & south of the Turnpike.
Extended Range:
Cold front: looks to slow down as it readies to sweep through because of the presence of a probable tropical storm Sandy (70% chance of development over the Carrbbean according to NHC) moving close to the US. Something to watch closely!
-Jaron Breen
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