Synopsis:
A short-wave trough is passing through the Commonwealth tonight with rain ending around 06Z with some clearing afterward. High pressure will set up in the northern mid-Atlantic states; the west to east flow will ride over the Lakes and bring some lake-effect rain/ wet snow showers in northwest PA. A short-wave trough will move along the coast, perhaps touching off a shower early tomorrow night in the Philadelphia area. Clear skies all around the rest of the state will lead to an even chillier start to the day on Tuesday. High pressure will move offshore during the day; a cold front will move through on Wednesday; and high pressure will briefly move in for Thursday.
Models Used: 12Z NAM, GFS, HI-RES NAM; 09Z & 15Z SREF; 16Z RAP/ HRRR
Short-Term:
It appears that enough cloud-cover will linger around 08-12Z that temperatures in much of the State tonight will stay near 40.
The 0C isotherm at 850 mb is above central PA. While rain will be the primary precipitation type in NW PA tomorrow afternoon, some wet snow or graupel may mix in at times, depending on intensity of the precipitation.
The latest trends show that the rain in SE PA is becoming less likely as each subsequent model run pushes the vort. max further out to sea.
It will be even colder (perhaps low & middle 30s) tomorrow night than tonight.
Long-Range:
Heights & upper-level temperatures will begin to increase before the cold front. The front looks to be in eastern OH around 09Z Wednesday and clear out during the night.
-Jaron Breen
A short-wave trough is passing through the Commonwealth tonight with rain ending around 06Z with some clearing afterward. High pressure will set up in the northern mid-Atlantic states; the west to east flow will ride over the Lakes and bring some lake-effect rain/ wet snow showers in northwest PA. A short-wave trough will move along the coast, perhaps touching off a shower early tomorrow night in the Philadelphia area. Clear skies all around the rest of the state will lead to an even chillier start to the day on Tuesday. High pressure will move offshore during the day; a cold front will move through on Wednesday; and high pressure will briefly move in for Thursday.
Models Used: 12Z NAM, GFS, HI-RES NAM; 09Z & 15Z SREF; 16Z RAP/ HRRR
Short-Term:
It appears that enough cloud-cover will linger around 08-12Z that temperatures in much of the State tonight will stay near 40.
The 0C isotherm at 850 mb is above central PA. While rain will be the primary precipitation type in NW PA tomorrow afternoon, some wet snow or graupel may mix in at times, depending on intensity of the precipitation.
The latest trends show that the rain in SE PA is becoming less likely as each subsequent model run pushes the vort. max further out to sea.
It will be even colder (perhaps low & middle 30s) tomorrow night than tonight.
Long-Range:
Heights & upper-level temperatures will begin to increase before the cold front. The front looks to be in eastern OH around 09Z Wednesday and clear out during the night.
-Jaron Breen
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