Wednesday, October 3, 2012

Wed Afternoon

Synopsis: A stalled front will allow for a wave of low pressure to ride up the eastern seaboard tomorrow. High pressure will build in for Friday, with unseasonably warm conditions. A strong cold front will barrel through early on Saturday, bringing an abrupt change in weather.
 
Short term: Stalled frontal boundary over Eastern PA will keep us in a warm, moist air mass. Dew points will remain high through Thursday. A wave of low pressure will ride up the stalled boudary and provide some wet weather for points east of State College for Thursday. As this system moves out, and the front slides off the coast, high pressure will build in. Conditions will clear out Thursday evening. Warm and advection from a southerly flow coupled with sunny skies will allow temperatures to rise to well above normal on Friday. Readings in the 70's will not be uncommon, with some southeastern locations reaching the 80 mark.
 
Long Term: Abrupt changes will take place overnight Friday, as a strong cold front pounds through the commonwealth. Showers, and possible thunderstorms, are expected through the morning and afternoon hours Saturday. The high temperature will likely occur at midnight as cold air will be ushered in behind the front. Model guidance is beginning to give more attention to a shortwave dropping into the region later in the weekend. GFS suggests the possibilty of a major precipitation maker for central PA. There is not much convergence however. Will keep on watch.


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