Another cold front is coming!!! We have some showers expected tonight starting at 8 PM in western PA to 6 AM in Eastern PA. Philadelphia may get 0.2 inches due to PVA (divergence) aloft while the rest of the State receives 0.01 to 0.1 inch. After that, a shot of cold air passes through Monday into Tuesday before high pressure settles over the region for Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday. A cold front arrives on Thursday, with more rain in store then. The ECMWF does suggest that front is driven by an upper-air cut-off low while the GFS suggests a shortwave trough.
Models Used: 12Z NAM, GFS & ECMWF, 15Z SREF, 17Z RUC/HRRR - initialization was an issue.
Notes: Apart from the differences in the long-range model and the initialization, models were in general agreement with the above pattern.
-Jaron Breen
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