A Wet, Wild Week Ahead

Synopsis:

Low clouds and fog blanketed the eastern half of the state most of today but most of the western half saw plentiful sunshine. Later tonight a cold front will begin to cross the region from west to east causing a drop in temperatures across most of the state. Tomorrow will be a mostly overcast day across a good portion of the state with rain most of the day in the western areas associated with the front that will pass through tonight. The eastern half will be generally dry with some patchy drizzle but nothing more significant that that. Penn State's game with Ohio State should be cloudy and cool but rain should stay away until the overnight hours. Sunday is when the next major weather maker moves in as what is now Hurricane Sandy will make its way to the Northeast and cause heavy rain, strong winds, and flooding for a good portion of the state with possible heavy accumulating snow across the higher levels of the Southern Appalachians.

Weekend Outlook:

After the clouds build in today and tomorrow morning, the cold front looks to impact the western portions of the commonwealth around 18Z-21Z, according to the NAM.  This front will then stall around 3Z Sunday morning in the wake of Sandy, forecasted to be sub-960 mb at that point.  While Sandy's precipitation won't be affecting the commonwealth much until Monday, expect winds to start picking up from the north at around 15-20 mph across most of PA.  These strong, northerly winds will be a key factor in determining precipitation types (rain/snow/mix) over portions of PA in the nights to come, especially in Pittsburgh and the Laurel Highlands areas.

Long Term Discussion:

Whether Sandy makes landfall in southern NJ or Long Island, we will still feel similar effects here in PA.  Currently, GFS has Sandy hooking into CT/RH/Long Island around18Z on Tuesday afternoon, while the Euro shows Sandy tracking through central NJ and southwestward into the DC area around 12Z on Tuesday morning.  Both of these models show Sandy making landfall as a slow-moving, sub-960 mb system with a very large windfield.  This is why the exact landfall location doesn't matter for us here in PA.  Conditions will worsen rapdily closer to the coast.  As a result, Philadelphia will bear the worst of the storm Monday through Wednesday, central locations will see tropical storm conditions (heavy rain and strong winds around 40-50 mph), and western locations will just experience another wet, windy day with a chance for snow in elevated locations.  Expect widespread wind and water damage and power outages from this storm from the mid-Atlantic up through New England.

Stay tuned to your local weather station for updates on this potentially devastating storm.