Technical Discussion
Synopsis:
A stationary front will hover over eastern coast of the United States on Tuesday. Cyclongenesis will occur along this stationary front Monday night. The newly developed low pressure will ride along this stationary front and sprint northeastward on Tuesday. A steady rain will occur on Tuesday and taper off into shower late Tuesday night. Some showers may linger throughout Wednesday. Another weak upper-level disturbance will reach the east coast by Thursday. Some showers may pop up in response this weak disturbance Thursday into Thursday night.
Short-Term (Monday)
Monday is the calm before the storm. The cold front that passed our region is weakening and will become stationary today. Clouds associated with this cold front will linger in our region throughout the day today. Not much of cold air advection has occurred since Sunday, thus the temperatures will only be slightly cooler than Sunday's.
Mid-Term (Tuesday – Wednesday night)
Cyclongenesis will occur along the previously mentioned stationary front on Tuesday. The storm is going to start off near the Gulf Coast and rapidly move northeastward. The models have come to a better agreement on the placement of this low pressure this morning. The WRF model was on a consistent eastward bias since last week and now is agreeing with the other guidance models. The models are now predicting an upper-level disturbance swinging across the Midwest will phase with this Gulf Coast low and nudge it a bit more northward. As result, the low pressure will likely pass to west of Pennsylvania and the whole State will be under the warm sector of this storm system on Tuesday. Some moderate to heavy rainfall may occur later on Tuesday. However, the chance of thunderstorm looks pretty slim right now with only minimal CAPE values predicted for Tuesday. Rain will continue in a more showery manner on Wednesday as trailing moisture associated with this low pressure passes through the region. Winds are also expected to pick up after the passage of the cold front. Things should gradually calm down Wednesday night as we get a break before another disturbance moves in on Thursday.
Long-Term (Thursday – Friday)
Another upper-level disturbance will drop down from the Rockies on Wednesday and be near the U.S. eastern seaboard by Thursday. The models really have downgraded this upper-level disturbance since Saturday. It looks like, instead of intensifying into a Nor'easter once it reaches the shore, this low upper-level low will simply be dragged behind Tuesday's storm and does not really have an impact our weather. Only expect a few scattered showers, possibly mixing with some snowflakes in some parts of the State on Thursday and into Thursday night. A more zonal flow will resume starting on Friday with any lingering showers ending by midday.
David Wang
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