Synopsis:
High pressure from Canada brings clear skies and chilly temperatures through Wednesday. A deep trough brings a high risk of rain Wednesday night and Thursday. Lake effect rain/snow showers signal the entrance of another ridge of high pressure.
Short-term:
Expect a fairly constant diurnal range from Monday to Tuesday at the least, if not very similar temperatures. Winds turn southerly on Wednesday, which could push temperatures above MOS.
Long-term:
The GFS has given up on a lingering cut-off low and shows a solution similar to that of the CMC from last week. However, the CMC (12Z) now has a bombing low pressure system over the Ohio River Valley. This conflicts even further with the 0Z GFS which pushes its coastal low further offshore. To consider that the GFS seems to be playing catch-up with the CMC would lend you to believe the CMC. However, unlike with last week's low over Minnesota, there is not model consensus 5-8 days out; therefore, we went with the GFS. We upped the precip to light rain from scattered showers, except in NW, PIT, and LH to respect the 0Z GFS more off-shore solution.
Scott Sieron
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