Technical Discussion (Monday Afternoon Shift)

Synopsis:

Weather will be nice, but boring through Wednesday as a large area of high pressure remains in control of the Northeastern US. Temperatures will remain below seasonal averages through the week. Weather will either be disappointing or horrible on Thursday and into Friday depending on what model you like. I'm siding with the GFS and WRF over the CMC and saying just a few passing showers.

Short Term: (Monday through Wednesday)

A Blah, beautifully boring beginning to November as high pressure dominates the Northeast. (Did my alliteration make it less boring? Probably not, but I tried.) Due to the high sitting to our North, winds will remain out of the north which will make daytime heating very difficult and keep temperatures below seasonal averages. The most exciting part of the next few days is the possibility of lake effect clouds in regions north of the I-80 corridor. Temps will rebound a bit on Wednesday due to the fact that PA will be pre-frontal.

Long Term:

Here's where the fun starts! There are three players that could make the difference late this week. The first is a cold front that will be swinging through the state stemming from a low pressure system in Canada; the second is a cut off low that will meander from the southern plains over the Gulf of Mexico; the final is extra tropical moisture that will make its way up the coast.

There are three scenarios

1.       (Most Likely ~70%) The cold front and associated upper level trough don't dig very far south and quickly move through Pennsylvania causing only a few scattered showers and doesn't tap into the extra tropical moisture until the front has moved well off to sea. That moisture will then wrap back around the low which will sit over the Canadian maritime for the weekend creating a strong Northwesterly wind that will bring mountainous regions of Pennsylvania some lake effect rain/snow on Friday night

2.       (Less Likely ~25%) The cold front moves a little slower allowing for the trough to dig further south and pick up the extra tropical moisture and move up the coast. This will bring more numerous showers in the western half of the state and heavy rain for the areas east of the I-81 corridor. The system will then wrap back around the Canadian Maritimes as in the first scenario causing light rain/snow showers, however, the persistence of the deep trough will allow for the cut off low to eventually swing around and may make the lake effect slightly stronger.

3.       (Least Likely and most fun) The cold front digs, digs, and digs some more so that it first picks up the moisture from the cut off low and then picks up the extra tropical moisture. The low would fall through the floor off the east coast and we'd have a Nor-Easter on our hands. This intense storm would then spin around in the Canadian Maritimes, bringing intensely cold air down and activating a significant lake effect snow storm that would coat the Northern tier of Pennsylvania with its first few inches of snow this year.

RJ Patrizio