Synopsis…
Steady rain is tapering off across the commonwealth, with heavy rain sticking around for a few more hours east of Route 15. Cold air will filter in, bringing with it the chance of snow. Lake effect may try to crank up in the NW and western mtns, which may see the first accumulations of the season.
Short Term…
The steady rainfall will continue across the eastern part of the state but will slowly taper off from west to east. Occasional rain showers will continue overnight and may mix with snow as temperatures continue to drop. Cold air aloft along with strong upper level winds may increase precip coverage by adding instability as they advect into PA. The biggest concern will be for the higher elevations through Fri, where it may be cold enough to result in a light coating. Come Fri night, most remaining showers will be west of IPT, and should change it over to light snow. If the lake snow bands set up as modeled, the Laurel Highlands could see an accumulation of 2+ inches, especially in the Seven Springs area. Otherwise, only isolated rpts of coatings can be expected in the N and W. Should be breezy Saturday with a few instability rain or snow showers remaining from UNV on west.
Long Term…
Very cold air will dominate the forecast thru Mon. If the skies clear and winds calm as much as projected, we could see temperatures drop even further Sun night. Models continue to diverge beyond about 6Z Monday. As the trough lifts across New England, GFS tries to cut off the low and keep temps down, while the majority project a strong ridge building in at this point. This will greatly affect the temperatures for the start of the work week; we went with the most common solution with higher temps late.
Forecaster: Matt Mahalik
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