Tuesday, November 9, 2010

Forecast Discussion

Synopsis...

For the next 5 days, the only thing really changing is the exact number of clouds in the sky. Temperatures are going to be very persistent through the end of the week - mild and seasonable - with generally sunny skies dominating the forecast through Saturday.

Short Term...

Two high pressure systems, one over Canada and one in the southern United States, are going to move slowly to the east during the day Tuesday, as indicated by the WRF. Both of these high pressure systems seem to stall out over their respective locations Tuesday night, and will remain there through the beginning of the weekend. Both of these high pressure systems will create an elongated ridge axis that basically covers the whole commonwealth. The air is going to be very dry at all levels of the atmosphere. The only exception to this will be through the end of the day Tuesday, as a low pressure system spinning off the New England coast will keep a few clouds in the eastern regions of the state. Temperatures will be a few degrees below average for Tuesday, according to MOS, with temperatures warming a few degrees statewide to near average temperatures for this time of year.

Long Term...

The elongated ridge axis holds in place through Saturday afternoon, with temperatures continuing to stay milder with abundant sunshine. A sampling of MOS output forecasts (NAM and GFS) shows that our warmest day of the week should be Friday. Our next system to watch is a cold front that looks to move in Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Precipitation seems to be minimal with this system according to the WRF, but the bigger story will definitely be a significant cool down once this system passes. This will be something to keep our eye on for early next week.


Andrew Dzambo


We Are... Penn State Meteorology




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