Synopsis...
Rainy day in store for Tuesday and the first half of Wednesday. temperatures will cool down significantly behind the occluding front associated with this rain. Cold and cloudy conditions will persist behind this front, and will make the forecast period beyond Wednesday a rather boring one...
Short Term...
A fast moving and strengthening frontal system will bring moderately heavy rain to the commonwealth for Tuesday. Based on the recent RADAR, the WRF and HRRR models are too slow with this system as the outer edge of the warm front associated with this system has already made it to the extreme southwest tip of the state. This isn't the strongest rain associated with this system, but most areas in the west and central parts will see at least a light rain through sunrise. The WRF shows the warm front slowing down, and given that this system is still funneling a large amount of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, a steady rain will persist through Tuesday especially the west and central regions. At some point late Tuesday night, the cold and warm fronts will occlude. The heaviest rains will come at this time, and the eastern regions of the state will see the heaviest rains. Most of the commonwealth will experience heavy rain Tuesday night through Wednesday morning, but starting Wednesday morning, the occluded front will begin to exit and the commonwealth will be clear of rain by the early evening.
Long Term...
Once the occluded front passes, MOS shows temperatures drops as much as 15-20 degrees compared to what they will be on Tuesday. This cold trend will continue through the weekend as a steady westerly flow builds in. The WRF shows nothing beyond Wednesday in terms of another possible weather maker, but high humidity at 700mb and 850mb through the end of the week should allow for cloudy skies to remain through then. Given this trend, most areas will not reach the 40s for their highs.
Andrew Dzambo
We Are... Penn State Meteorology
Rainy day in store for Tuesday and the first half of Wednesday. temperatures will cool down significantly behind the occluding front associated with this rain. Cold and cloudy conditions will persist behind this front, and will make the forecast period beyond Wednesday a rather boring one...
Short Term...
A fast moving and strengthening frontal system will bring moderately heavy rain to the commonwealth for Tuesday. Based on the recent RADAR, the WRF and HRRR models are too slow with this system as the outer edge of the warm front associated with this system has already made it to the extreme southwest tip of the state. This isn't the strongest rain associated with this system, but most areas in the west and central parts will see at least a light rain through sunrise. The WRF shows the warm front slowing down, and given that this system is still funneling a large amount of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, a steady rain will persist through Tuesday especially the west and central regions. At some point late Tuesday night, the cold and warm fronts will occlude. The heaviest rains will come at this time, and the eastern regions of the state will see the heaviest rains. Most of the commonwealth will experience heavy rain Tuesday night through Wednesday morning, but starting Wednesday morning, the occluded front will begin to exit and the commonwealth will be clear of rain by the early evening.
Long Term...
Once the occluded front passes, MOS shows temperatures drops as much as 15-20 degrees compared to what they will be on Tuesday. This cold trend will continue through the weekend as a steady westerly flow builds in. The WRF shows nothing beyond Wednesday in terms of another possible weather maker, but high humidity at 700mb and 850mb through the end of the week should allow for cloudy skies to remain through then. Given this trend, most areas will not reach the 40s for their highs.
Andrew Dzambo
We Are... Penn State Meteorology
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