Synopsis: Cold front moves through the state late Saturday night, making sunny but below normal Sunday. Clouds will move on in as a warm front from storm #1 pushes northeast. Warm front moves in on Monday, while the cold front pushes through on Tuesday. Wednesday is best out of the forecast, as partly cloudy skies will dominate. Storm #2 comes in from the Northern Plains for Thanksgiving, in the terms of scattered showers. The center will relocate on the Atlantic Ocean at the New Jersey coast; wintry mix might appear for western half.
Short term: Going off of previous trends, the NAM is the outlier here, relying on the GFS and EURO. The NAM seems to be playing catch up to the GFS/Euro, while the GFS is playing the same game with the EURO. GFS shows the clouds move in associated with a warm front from a low pressure system that is riding a trough that is over the Mid-west, moving in late Sunday. These clouds will remain for all day on Monday with showers entering the region by dawn on Tuesday.
Long-term: Showers associated with the cold front from the storm mentioned in the short-term forecast will slowly move across the state on Tuesday. Immediately after the showers pass through the GFS signals clearing for Tuesday night, this sets up for the partly cloudy skies for Wednesday. Storm number 2 will streak across the Northern Plains before trying to relocate off the coast of New Jersey. This will give the Commonwealth showers for Thanksgiving Day. This seems to be not a fast mover, as fresh Canadian cold air is following it, and this will last majority of Thanksgiving Day and into Black Friday. When the low relocates to the shore of New Jersey, cold air will enter the western half of the Commonwealth, this might set up for wintry mix in the hills.
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