Friday, November 19, 2010

11/19 Technical Discussion

Synopsis:

A ridge of high pressure settled over Pennsylvania brings fairly boring weather conditions for the weekend into early next week. We expect mostly sunny conditions across the Commonwealth, with a few passing clouds here and there, especially today. A warm-up is predicted for Monday and Tuesday, and our first chance of precip comes at the end of the forecast period as a very slight chance of showers.

Short-term:

Beautiful fall weather is expected, as the ridge of high pressure establishes itself to our South. Any lingering showers have just ended across Pennsylvania and sunny skies are in store for the remainder of the weekend. Temperatures look to be seasonable, although we found the WRF to be a bit extreme for its temperature predictions on both the highs and the lows, so we forecasted more conservatively. Overall the weather is fairly consistent through the short-term.

Long-term:

After a relatively quiet weekend, clouds and the chance of precipitation will work its way back into the forecast according to the WRF and NAM models starting Monday night.  A low pressure off to the northwest will enhance these clouds.  Also associated with this pressure system are gusty winds especially in the western portions of the state.  A warm air mass will encompass the state during this time, which will push temperatures well above average for Monday and Tuesday. The next major storm system to affect us looks to bring us interesting weather, although the timing and even the type of precipitation are at the moment questionable. Current model runs show arrival around Wednesday night, and affecting us through the Thanksgiving holiday. The only certainty with this next system is that it will bring an end to our above-average temperatures.

Burkely Twiest and Patrick Ritsko


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