Sunday, November 7, 2010

Sunday Technical Discussion

Synopsis:

Currently mostly sunny conditions across the Commonwealth with some fog in Bradford, Dubois, and Clearfield.  A storm system that is out in the Atlantic Ocean will move to the northwest today and will effect New England tomorrow, this will spread clouds into our state for Monday.  High pressure will dominate from Tuesday to Friday.

Short-term:

The NAM and GFS both show a slight chance of clouds today as the trough moves out to sea, but we went against that as there was a small sliver of 70% of Relative Humidity at the 700 and 850 mb levels.  The real storm comes as both models show a low pressure system moving westward into New England, and going a 180 degree turn over Southern New England. What this means for us as both models have shown is increasing clouds for Monday as that storm turns around for all of the state.  The GFS and NAM both show a slight chance of a shower or two for NE/SE portions of the Commonwealth, also the 3z SREF has a 30% of precipitation in these zones, so these zones get a chance of a shower tomorrow.

Long-term: 

Clearing occurs on Tuesday as ridge of high pressure building in from the west.  The GFS shows an omega blocking to occur this week as Monday's storm system lingers out in the ocean and as another storm system fires up in the Rockies.  This ridge will progress eastward during the forecasting period, bringing sunshine for the rest of the week.




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