Synopsis:
Weak high pressure will keep the region dry today. A moderately strong low pressure system with ample access to moisture will move towards the eastern Great Lakes and bring quite a bit of rain. A weak system on Wednesday brings a few more showers. Then a zonal flow with the jet stream to our north keeps the weather quiet.
Short-term:
Quiet weather today, as clouds begin to build in the late afternoon and evening hours. Watch for showers possibly moving in faster than the models indicate: we're approaching winter, when "warm advection waits for no man."
Long-term:
There is some question as to the track of the big system. We did not like the WRF solution because it is an outlier to all other operational models and the SREF precip. If I had to put my finger on one thing, it would be that the WRF guides the center of the low right along the Appalachian Mts and then has it cross them. The track doesn't mean much, actually, just that Erie will see rain, and Philadelphia could miss much of the heaviest of rain. The .5-1" in the discussion was based on the 15Z SREF plumes.
I have a feeling that the mid-week short wave will need adjusting for precip amount as well as timing over the next few days. The trend of the models has been slower and farther south. And precip will be more easily seen with the WRF and UKMET when it reaches their temporal range.
Scott sSieron
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