Friday, November 12, 2010

11/12 Technical Discussion

Synopsis:

Warmer than normal temperatures and clear skies persisting throughout today and Saturday; a cold front begins passage through the state during the day on Sunday into overnight Monday. Dreary conditions are expected to follow through the middle of next week.

Short-term:

Clear skies and warmer than average temperatures are the only things going on across the Commonwealth through Saturday, due to the high pressure ridge still dominating our weather pattern. This will break down on Sunday as a cold front is expected to move from west to east across the state. The first chance of precipitation for the western part of the state looks to come in the afternoon-though the models are still divided concerning if the precipitation will reach the central and eastern parts of the state at all. However, we put a chance of precipitation late Sunday into Monday in all of our forecasts due what we saw in the 9Z run of the SREF.

Long-term:


The chance of rain continues through the start of the workweek.  The WRF continues to show precipitation working its way from the west and slowly affecting the rest of the state.  The MOS models show temperatures are expected to drop back down to average values by the middle of the week.  The chance of showers will continue as pressure levels appear to drop from the 1018 mb level to the lower 1000s mb where low pressure will begin to set in.  This could leave the forecast region under cloudy conditions for the remainder of the week.




Burkely Twiest and Patrick Ritsko


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