Technical Discussion

Synopsis….

High pressure will main dominate on Wednesday before an upper level low pressure system rides up the coast on Thursday and provides much of Pennsylvania with showers on Thursday. Behind the storm winds from the North will provide colder temperatures as well as lake enhanced snow throughout the state on Friday and Saturday. High pressure will move back in later in the weekend bringing with it drier and warmer conditions.

Short Term (Wed-Wed Night)

Temperatures throughout the day Tuesday warmed into the upper 40's and lower 50's across the state after a chilly night which dropped well into the 20's statewide. Temperatures early Wednesday will be a few degrees warmer Tuesday mornings temperatures as some clouds around 500mb in height moved through the state overnight. The high pressure will still be dominate for Wednesday and provide for temperatures a few degrees warmer than Tuesday since 850 temperatures on the SREF ensembles are about 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer across the state. An upper level pressure system moving towards the region Wednesday night will provide clouds overnight Wednesday. These clouds will stop the temperature from dropping too low Wednesday night.

Medium Range (Thur-Sat)

 An upper level low pressure system will move east of the region on Thursday and provide some showers across the state through Thursday night. Prefer the GFS over all other models as it handled this storm much better than any other models. While other models showed a large east coast storm later this week as the jet streams hooked up, the GFS continuous showed the trough not being deep enough and showed only a weak upper level low moving through on Thursday. As the low pressure moves north it will bring winds from the north on Friday which will lead to lake enhanced rain and snow showers across the state on Friday and Saturday. Expect a few locations in the Laurel Highlands and northwestern Pennsylvania to see a few inches of snow from the snow showers on Friday and Saturday. Some isolated areas in the western areas of the state could see a dusting or coating from the snow showers. The winds from the north will also bring cooler temperatures into the state on Friday.

Long Range (Sun-Mon)

High pressure will move back in on Sunday as the ridge in the west moves into the Eastern half of the nation for the beginning of next week. This will provide for warmer temperatures as well as dry conditions for the beginning of next week.