Synopsis: Expect some clouds during the first half of the week, as a disturbance off the East Coast still wields an influence on the weather. High pressure will build into the region by Wednesday, allowing for lots of sunshine and dry and milder conditions for the remainder of the week.
Short-Term: Both the GFS and the WRF 1200 UTC runs have a low-pressure system continuing to evolve right off the East Coast, along with an associated relatively strong upper-level vorticity maximum. Some of the eastern zones of the state may see breezy conditions in association with the pressure gradients of this disturbance, which we took into consideration. Both models project the coastal low pushing some clouds into the eastern portions of the state as Monday progresses, but very little in the way of precipitation. In fact, based on the projections of the 1500 UTC SREF precipitation ensemble run, the only portion of the state with even the slightest shot at receiving any light rain showers is the northeastern zone, so we forecasted for this conservatively and accordingly, with 'a chance of showers' for this zone.
Long-term: Both the WRF and the GFS have building high pressure in the region gradually pushing the low pressure system away from the East Coast by Wednesday. The high pressure seems like it will dominate the weather pattern for the remainder of the week. The WRF and the GFS (1200 UTC runs) both have a nice dry slot of air, at both the lower and middle levels of the atmosphere, for Wednesday and Thursday, at least. Temperature projections were consistent for the forecasting period, with slightly unseasonably mild high temperatures by Wednesday and Thursday, due to the synoptic situation. We were conservative when forecasting these temperatures, though, due to model biases.
-Alicia Klees
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