Monday, September 19, 2011

919 Afternoon Technical Discussion

Tech Disco

Synopsis:

Cloudy skies and rain showers will be the primary weather story of this week. Temperatures will moderate into the 70s in many locations throughout the week before a cold front ahead of a deep upper-level trough that forms over the Eastern Plains by late Thursday.

Short Term:

Heavy cloud cover is pushing into Pennsylvania at this hour, with associated rain showers following close behind in Ohio. Expect this rain to continue to move towards and across PA overnight. Heaviest rainfall amounts should occur towards the western part of the state. Note that 15z SREF ensembles show extremely low likelihood of significant CAPE, so there should not be thunder associated with this rain. The chance of rain decreases during the day tomorrow, but thick cloud cover should still dominate the region. Temperatures will continue their (slight) upward trend tomorrow and throughout the next several days.

Long Term:

The cloudy and rainy pattern will become a broken record for this week's forecast, it seems. Cloud cover seems to remain likely through the end of the work week, as nothing seems to be able to break up the clouds or push them away. The chance for rain is not as consistent throughout the week, with the least chance on Wednesday, between systems, before the chance increases late in the week as moisture is funneled up from the Atlantic. This is primarily due to a very deep trough that will set up over the Eastern Plains by late Thursday. Eventually, both the GFS and ECMWF show a large cutoff upper-low forming, which will usher in moderate temperatures (in the mid-60s through low-70s) but the chance for rain right into the next weekend.

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