Monday Afternoon Technical Discussion

Monday Afternoon Technical Discussion

Synopsis:

Pleasant weather in place over PA today will continue tomorrow with temperatures slightly above average. A cold front will precede some significantly cooler weather associated with a large area of high pressure, which will dominate the weather story during the latter half of the week.

Short Term:

Observations from late afternoon show partly cloudy skies with temperatures generally in the 60s and 70s around the state. There are a few showers and thunderstorms back in Ohio associated with a shortwave passing through the region today, but they will likely diminish as they approach Pennsylvania later tonight.

Valleys of Pennsylvania could see more fog again tomorrow morning, but this fog should burn off rather quickly. Tuesday's weather pattern is generally similar to today's, with partly cloudy skies and dry conditions. Temperatures will be warmer tomorrow, with NAM MOS forecasting highs in the upper 70s and even approaching 80 in many areas. We forecasted accordingly.

Overnight Tuesday night, 21Z SREF shows moderately high probability of precipitation along a cold front associated with part of an upper-level low stationed in central Ontario. SREF does indicate the shower/thunderstorm activity will break apart overnight as the front crosses the state. 18z WRF seems to follow suit. A widespread rain event across Pennsylvania does not seem too likely.

Long Term:

Wednesday should be another pleasant day with mostly clear skies and temperatures remaining near normal. The real surge of cold air and next chance for rain comes Wednesday night into Thursday, as another front passes through the state, again associated with the bulk of the upper-level vort. max in southern Canada. This system could lay down a bit of rain across the state, but large amounts are not expected.

Behind this front, a large area of high pressure will dominate the weather pattern towards the end of the week and into the weekend. Temperatures will drop off significantly as cold, Canadian air is ushered in by the clockwise flow. Highs will likely not break out of the 60s after Wednesday, at least for the following 5 days or so. Skies should be mostly sunny and rain-free though – right through the upcoming weekend.

-Devin Boyer