Wednesday Midday

Synopsis:  A Cutoff low will be slowly moving east, as it does so, the Commonwealth will deal with rain for the rest of the work week.  First rain will be from the south, and then Thursday onward it will be from the west.  Strong high pressure looks to come into the region for Sunday.

Short-term:    With the cold front/stationary front slowly moving eastward, showers/thunderstorms are likely to occur, ahead of the front.  They will be traveling from the South/Southwest and moving to the North/Northeast.  Flash flooding could occur, as some of these showers can put down a quick inch in about a 20 min span.  Already the GFS/NAM is off on where it should be precipitating for the day.  The current radar shows a line of shower that will affect the Central and Eastern parts of the state, while Western part looks partly to mostly cloudy.  Relied more on the current weather, then on guidance.  The front will pass through sometime over Wednesday night, shifting the precipitation travel from the south to from the west.  The GFS has the cutoff low finally getting caught back up into the jet stream, while the NAM is just beginning this at around 15z Thursday.  We will still see scattered showers, throughout the day on Thursday.  The threat of flooding on Thursday does not look as bad as it does for Wednesday.

Long-term:  The system that is causing the jet stream to finally pick up the cutoff low is a strong storm system that pushing through the Northern Great Lakes and has an associated powerful cold front with it.  Behind it, a strong high pressure will move into the Ohio River Valley for the end of the weekend.  But before that, the cold front will push through on Friday with scattered showers that will linger into the night. The difference between the models for the timing of the front looks to be a 50 mile difference, and at 18z Friday, the front should be through Central PA according to both GFS & NAM.  Showers might linger on Saturday morning, but clearing conditions will occur after noontime.  High pressure looks to dominate Sunday, hence mostly sunny conditions for Sunday.

Kept temperatures near previous shift.