Short Term (Thru Thu Eve)
Rainfall will continue as the remnants of Lee move a little further north into Ohio over the next few days. The heaviest rain on both the GFS and NAM are centered across Central Pennsylvania during this period. By the end of the week, the NAM has precipitation amounts of around 10 inches across these areas, while the GFS shows an impressive 14 inches of precipitation for these areas. Both NAM MOS and GFS MOS only predict a few more inches falling over the next couple of days, but both MOS's tend to underestimate large precipitation storms on average. The rain will vary in intensity at times with the heaviest rain likely falling early Wednesday, followed by another heavy period of rain late Wednesday. Many rivers that have not already flooded their banks will do so over the next few days. Some areas of the state may end up fairly dry compared to these areas as the GFS and NAM only bring a few showers with up to half an inch of precipitation to the western and eastern parts of the commonwealth. Temperatures Wednesday will push back to the 60's with winds shifting from the Northeast to East off the Atlantic Ocean. Thursday may bring thunderstorms to many areas in Southern Pennsylvania as the warm front pushes north into the commonwealth allowing for more of a southerly flow. This will also allow temperatures in these areas to rebound back into the upper 60's and lower 70's for the majority of the state.
Long Term (Fri-Sun)
The rain will became to become less widespread on Friday as the remnants of Lee pushes further west into Indiana. The heaviest of the rain will begin to push into Central New York. The models are in slight disagreement as we move into Friday and Saturday as the NAM has only a few showers across Central and Western Pennsylvania for the two days, but the GFS has widespread showers across the entire Commonwealth through Saturday. Cloud cover should break some on Sunday as drier conditions move into the state. Temperatures during the weekend should be well into the upper 60's and lower 70's for much of Pennsylvania.
Zachary Fasnacht
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