Synopsis
As the cutoff low over the Ohio River Valley continues to spin and slowly weaken, moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee will promote cloudy and wet conditions through Sunday. Once this low completely weakens and the trough associated with it moves off to the northeast, dry conditions will return by the start of next week as an area of high pressure builds into the area. Late in the forecast period, a strong northern stream disturbance associated with a cold front will push through the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday
Short Term (Thursday night through Sunday morning)
Showers and possible thunderstorms will continue over the area as the 500 mb cutoff low drifts off to the west. This will shift some of the heavier bands of showers to the central and western areas during the day Friday which should provide some relief to eastern areas which have been inundated with record rainfall. With a very pronounced easterly flow, the upper levels of the atmosphere will remain saturated. The 21z SREF, 18z GFS, and 00z NAM are in good agreement that a total 1 to 2 inches of rain could fall over central to western PA through Sunday. Both the NAM and GFS also keep the relative humidity very high at the 850 mb and 700 mb which should help support cloudy skies and showers through Sunday. High temperatures through Sunday should remain in the mid to upper 70's with some places reaching 80.
Long Term (Sunday Morning to Tuesday Evening)
Once the cutoff low dissipates, the easterly flow will weaken and an area of high pressure will build into the area on Monday. This will bring us drier conditions and more pleasant, fall-like conditions. Temperatures will be near normal before a cold front moves through mid-week.
-Matt Mehallow
No comments:
Post a Comment