Synopsis
The low pressure system over the Ohio Valley has become cut off and will continue to deepen over the weekend. It will be anchored over this region for the weekend and the beginning of next week. Precipitation and thundershowers remain a distinct possibility during this time.
Looking ahead to the weekend and early next week:
A strong upper level low has detached itself form the jet stream. Broad ridging will allow for the system to nearly stall over the Ohio valley sometime on Friday. The low will become closed off and will continue to deepen and spin up moisture from the Atlantic. Unsettled weather is expected for Friday and Saturday due this system. Temperatures on Friday will be slightly below average in western zones of the state due to the passage of a cold front and cooler air being brought in by the upper level low.
As the upper level system continues to spin into Friday night and Saturday, swaths of heavy rain will move north across the region. Model guidance does not seem to have a good handle on exactly where and when these heavy bands will hit however. Latest WRF (0Z) has heavy bands moving through central zones early Saturday and then separate bands moving through extreme eastern and western zones later in the day. GFS guidance likes move the rain through earlier, ie. late in the day Friday. Regardless, there will be bands of heavy rain moving through Friday night as the system deepens and becomes stagnant. This will keep a chance of rain through at least Tuesday, with conditions becoming better for the second half of next week as the cutoff slowly moves out.
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