Synopsis:
The high pressure system that brought us cooler temperatures will move offshore by Monday, setting up a southwesterly flow. This will usher in some warmer air. A weak cold front will make its way through the commonwealth Monday and Tuesday. We will watch another, more powerful low pressure system move into the region for the end of the week.
Short-term:
The 12z runs of the GFS and ECMWF as well as the 9z SREF models are in agreement with the high moving offshore by Monday AM while a cold front makes its way into PA from Monday evening, pushing through during the afternoon and evening Tuesday. Moisture will arrive ahead of the front and give us rain, but the front is too weak for any major events, thank goodness.
Long-range:
The GFS and Euro are still in agreement that another low with a trailing cold front will arrive very late on Thursday, possibly as late as Friday. However, the precip. probability plumes show a wide range of options for late in the week: it's worth watching, but forecast this weekend's rain with caution.
-Jaron Breen
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