The remainder of the week will gradually become much more warm and humid. A fairly broad cold front looks to make its way through the commonwealth Sunday and Monday, likely bringing plenty of rain in that span.
Short Term...
A broad area of high pressure that has dominated our weather will hold in place again for Thursday. This high has slipped a bit to the east, therefore allowing a more pronounced SW flow to build in. With this pattern in place again for tomorrow, highs across the state will likely be a lot warmer and dew points will rise also. MOS has a pretty good grasp on this particular air mass, having been within a couple degrees of both the Dew PT and High temperature for Wednesday. The WRF and GFS model both show pronounced humidity at 700mb, and the ECMWF indicates a broad area of moisture passing through the northern part of the state Thursday, so a scattered shower or thunderstorm is definitely possible in those regions. On Friday, an approaching cold front, coupled with the receding high to the east, will help to continue funneling warm, moist air from the southeast. This will make way for an even warmer and muggier Friday. The approaching cold front will be ready to enter the commonwealth Saturday night, based on a blend of the ECMWF and GFS model. PA will definitely experience another hot and humid day Saturday with some areas reaching 90 degrees, based on the timing of this front.
Long Term...
Western regions will begin experiencing widespread showers and thunderstorms Sunday morning, and the eastern most regions will see their first raindrops by Sunday evening. The European model seems to pick up on the most likely scenario because of the pool of warm, moist air left over from the previous few days, which is a fairly broad and steady area of rain/thunderstorms passing through the state with peak intensity over the west and central regions. State College will likely see a fair amount of rain from this system between Sunday afternoon and Monday morning. All models generally agree that this front will accelerate out of the state through Monday morning, which indicates that any leftover showers and storms should completely taper off by Monday afternoon. A broad area of high pressure will build in behind this front, leaving the middle of the week pleasant and dry.
Andrew Dzambo
We Are... Penn State Meteorology
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