Synopsis: An upper level trough combined with the remains of T.S. Lee has made the Northeast the target, and that has been the case. Since Sunday up to 8" of rain has fallen along and just north of the I81 corridor from the Maryland border to the I80 interchange in Hazelton. The upper level feature of Lee will become a cut off low which will remain with us for the next 5 days; with heavy rain for Wednesday and showery conditions until Friday. The big weekend should be dry with isolated showers both days.
Short-term: Disregard the NAM, and follow the GFS. The 0z NAM is showing heavy bands of rain setting up/moving in from due south, heading due north. The current radar images as of 9 and 10 am show that this set up is actually due east of what the NAM is showing, and is the solution the 0z GFS is showing. Hence the NAM is only being considered for the big picture while the GFS is being used for more of the details. The GFS continues to show the Susquehanna River area as the target for showers for Thursday and into Friday.
Long-term: Continuing with the GFS, the upper level low that Lee becomes will retrograde backwards along the Ohio River Valley. This means the showers will start to dissipate as we go into the weekend, with dry conditions for Saturday and Sunday with the chance of a shower in the afternoon both days. The reason for the chance of shower is because the cut off low is finally being attached to the jet stream. As this happens a short wave will develop to the east of the state, which could interact with Katia.
Kept temperatures relativity the same as the midnight shift.
No comments:
Post a Comment