Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Tuesday afternoon technical discussion

Synopsis: A stalled front associated with the occluded low is currently bringing rain showers to parts of Pennsylvania. As center of low pressure makes its way east, this will continue to bring the chance of rain across the state.

Short-Term: A dry slot is currently providing few and scattered clouds across the western half of the state. Heavy rain is being generated to the east. Upper level low will continue to spin over the next few days and slowly propagate eastward until the trough builds its way in. The cut off low will continue to bring the opportunity of rain to parts of PA especially as the core moves into the area. Both the 12Z WRF and 12Z NAM move the low into the keystone state late Thursday into Friday before exiting. The SREF shows fairly high 3 hour POPS likely over the upcoming days.

Long-Term: The upper level low will linger across our area until a long wave trough makes its way into the state around Friday. This will continue to produce rain showers which move in from the northwest. Expect winds to shift to a northwest and bring cooler than average temperatures. A ridge will develop the west and advance to the east bring dry and warmer temperatures early next week.

-Matthew Ray

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