Saturday morning forecast discussion

Synopsis:

 

After quite a bit of rain yesterday and very cool temperatures, we will see things at least dry out across the Commonwealth for today, even though we won't see much sun. Temperatures will still be below average for this time of year, because of the continued influence of Canadian air. However, this will move out by tomorrow, as we will see warmer air make its' way into Pennsylvania. A warm front will move to our north, which will turn the winds southerly for everybody. We may see a few showers as the warm front passes by, but nothing too significant. Monday, it will be even warmer, with highs across PA in the 70s and 80s - more like June than April! This will be short-lived, however, as showers and thunderstorms roll through Monday night with the passage of a cold front. The temperatures will be set back for Tuesday, with highs only slightly above average for this time of year (and possibly average or below average for some areas), and we will see a few wraparound isolated showers as well. However, for the rest of the week, expect drying conditions and very pleasant temperatures. The next chance of showers comes for Friday.

 

Short-term:

 

Clouds continue to linger across the Commonwealth this morning, and that will continue to be the case for the rest of the day. However, we will not see widespread rain like we did yesterday. High pressure from Ontario continues to exert an influence on our weather, so it will still be cool for today. High temperatures will run below average for this time of year. By tomorrow, however, this will have changed completely. Much warmer air will make its' way across PA. We will see the 570-mb. height line move across late Sunday, ushering in winds from the Gulf of Mexico. We could see a few showers moving through for Sunday, but nothing significant. Monday will easily be the warmest day, with the 570-mb. height line well into the state, and winds coming from the Gulf. This could give many areas pretty high humidity as well, so it could actually feel somewhat muggy on Monday. This is pretty much the perfect mix for some volatile thunderstorms, which will come with the arrival of the cold front Monday evening into overnight. The timing of this cold front seems pretty consistent - most of the models have it beginning to move into PA between 21Z and 00Z, and then leaving between 03Z and 06Z. Since the front will move through in the evening, the thunderstorms will probably not be as severe as they would be had it come through during the afternoon, but we could see some pretty severe thunderstorms nonetheless. Then, once the front passes through, we will see a calmer pattern for the rest of the week.

 

Long-term:

 

Some showers could occur in the northern parts of PA (up in the mountains, mainly) during the day Tuesday, as the precipitation wraps around the low pressure system associated with the cold front. Do expect these showers to leave pretty quickly on Tuesday, though. Otherwise, most areas will see some sunshine on Tuesday, with seasonably cool temperatures. For the rest of the week, it will be very nice, with temperatures in the 50s and 60s (perfect April weather) and plenty of sunshine. The next chance of showers comes in for Friday, when another front will sweep through the state.